Opinion: Preliminary Arithmetics Of The Akwa Ibom Guber Judgement, By Stephen Leemene Deegbara

By Stephen Leemene Deegbara

Let me start by saying that nothing here has the stamp of infallibility, as there may yet be facts not known to me. In that case, I would reasonably expect that friends on this page should fill in the gap where necessary, if missing facts are within the grasps of their knowledge. On that note, I proceed with the preliminary arithmetic of the Akwa Ibom Governoship Tribunal verdict.

INEC, on the 11th of April, 2015, declared Udom's PDP winner of the gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom with a total of 996, 071 votes in his favour. His nearest rival, the popular Umana of the APC, was said to have polled 89, 865 votes.
The tribunal today ruled that of the 996,071 which INEC credited to Odum's PDP, 566,436 voters in 18 of Akwa Ibom's 31 LGAs were disenfranchised as there was no evidence of valid accreditation. The tribunal accordingly ordered a rerun in the affected 18 LGAs. The LGAs are:1. Onna2. Uyo3. Ibesikpo4. Nsit ubium5. Nsit Atai6. Uruan7. Nsit ibom8. Itu9. Ibiono ibom10. Eket11. Ikot Abasi12. Udung UKO13. Etinan14. Ini15. Ibeno16. Etim EKPO17. Oruk anam18. Ikono
Out of the remaining 13LGAs, APC had won in 4 LGAs, namely:1. Mbo2. Udung Uko3. Okobo4. Urue Offong Uruko
Now, pick your calculator and let's do the maths.996, 071 minus 566, 436=340,635. That means, according to the verdict of the tribunal, Odum's PDP still have 340, 635 valid votes standing to their credit.
Information as to whether or not the number of votes credited to Umana's APC by INEC was tampered with is yet not given. So let's assume that the 89, 865 votes of Umana remains intact. Again, let's do the maths.
Pick up your calculator and don't forget the number of valid votes standing in favour of Odum's PDP. So we roll like this:340,635-89,865=250,770.
Now, if Odum's PDP and Umana's APC fail to appeal the verdict of the tribunal within the time permitted by law( something that is very unlikely) and rerun election is held in the affected 18 LGAs as ordered, it follows that from the word go , Odum will have 250,770 in his favour ab initio.
Whether that advantage is sufficient or not depends on the total number of registered voters in the affected LGA. As of this moment, that information is not readily available. But sources say that the affected area covers the stronghold of Umana's APC, which implies that after all, Udom's lead may not be unassailable. He may still lose the poll if APC performs well.
According to INEC, there is a total of 1,548,531 registered voters in the 31 LGAs of AKWA Ibom State.
Another Angle To The Judgment
Should the tribunal have outrightly nullified the Akwa Ibom guber election instead of keeping some valid votes in favour of Udom and merely ordering a rerun in 18 LGAs?
I want to answer in the affirmative. The evidence before the tribunal was strong enough for the election in the entire 31 LGAs to be nullified, but somehow, the tribunal didn't follow that route.
To be validly elected as governor of a state, the law demands that a candidate should poll majority of votes in at least 2/3 majority of the LGAs of that state.
What is the 2/3 of 31? It is 20.6! So, in effect, why should there not be outright nullification when PDP's Udom did not secure victory at least 20 states?
I am tempted to say that in the eye of the law, he is not a Governor as things stand!
APC has more than a fair chance in Akwa Ibom. please you can share!
Mr. Deegbara Writes from Port Harcourt

Opinion: Akwa Ibom State Government vs Local Press: War is coming, By Edidiong Godwin

By Edidiong Godwin

"War is mainly a catalogue of blunders." –Winston Churchill

If Jesus tarries and barring any divine intervention, then the fierce rivalry between the Akwa Ibom state government and the local Press, will someday become a global concern. Whether we like it or we don't, a revolution is coming our way. A seed of discord was planted and as long as the soil remains fertile, the seed will germinate and bear fruits. May be we should take some moments to reminisce old times; was the relationship between the state government and the local Press this bad under former Governor Attah and in the early days of former Governor Akpabio? The answer is absolute No.

The first law of public/media relation is good relationship. Though they were not made to be outright and eternal foes, history shows that whenever the Press romances the government, it's always most likely a marriage of convenience. Hence, a government that is really serious about having a good image, seize such rare opportunity to build a good and lasting relationship with the Press. This was the simple secrete behind the good rapport between the Victor Attah-led administration and the local Press as it were and his predecessor, Godswill Akpabio rode briefly on the back of that goodwill.
As a member of the state executive council, Godswill Akpabio probably was the most media friendly commissioner. He had a personal relationship with many publishers and journalists and that probably explained why he had an overwhelming support of the local Press ahead of the 2007 governorship election. Besides riding on the goodwill of Attah's administration, Akpabio, in his early days as a governor, sustained the good relationship with the media. The romance was quite a rollercoaster until he decided to entrust it in the hands of opportunists and mediocre. For the benefit of all the JJCs, the very Godswill Obot Akpabio that is so much 'despised' by the local Press today was once a toast of the media.
I bet, in 2007, not even a soothsayer would have predicted that there will be such a fierce rivalry between Godswill Akpabio and the local Press by 2015. It was love made in heaven. But that is the thing about marriage of convenience; it's like a time bomb, no matter how long it takes, it will eventually explode. The breaking news is, the explosion caused by Akpabio's warship is now wrecking Udom Emmanuel's boat. If it isn't the sin of the father visiting the child, I wonder what it is. However, the face-off so far and all the things we see, hear or read are mere signs of war, the real war is yet to come.
Let's talk war. As noted by Winston Churchill, 'war is mainly a catalogue of blunders' and frankly speaking, we are where we are today because of blunders. From Aniekan Umanah's reappointment as Information Commissioner, Governor Udom's failure to meet the Press after more than 100days in office, Ekerette Udoh's American dream, alienation of the local Press, Senator Anietie Okon's assault on a newspaper vendor to the incessant intimidation and arrest of publishers and journalists, it has been blunders after blunders; setting the perfect tone for war. No two wrongs can make a right.
As a daily visitor to the newsstands, I can confidently say that the camp of the local Press is swelling by the day. Besides the number of anti-government newspapers increasing daily, the people on their part are taking sides. It seems nothing brightens their day more than reading negative stories about the government every morning at the newsstands. It was recently alleged that the state government had banned newspaper vendors from selling around the popular Ibom Plaza. According to the report, the reason for the ban was because members of the Free Readers Association, Ibom Plaza District, were fond of chanting 'APC! Change' whenever the state governor passed. I understand the ban was later lifted.
That scenario clearly shows whose side the people are. While the government is busy committing blunders after blunders, the Press is strategically building strong ties. The government has the war chest but the Press has a war plan. Regardless of what people think, the current rivalry in the state is not between Udom/PDP and Umana/APC but between the government and the Press - every other party is an alias.
According to the state commissioner for Information, Aniekan Umanah, journalists in the state are blackmailers and agents of falsehood while the over 100 local tabloids in the state are nothing but rag sheets. Honestly, I can understand his frustration. The man is sitting on a keg of gun powder. Everybody knows that taking the Ukana powers out of the equation, Mr. Umanah will definitely not be the Information commissioner. Clearly, he has failed in his job. It appears the government finds it more convenient to the wrong things. A truce is never out of reach except when your foremen are renowned trucebrakers. The point is, the state government CANNOT strike any deal with the local Press as long as Aniekan Umanah remains the state commissioner for Information.
The law is clear on Press Freedom and it is non-negotiable. Everyone has the right to approach the court if they feel injured or defamed by a publication. So, rather than blaming opposition for its woes or frequently using the security apparatus against newsmen, the government should look inward and reassess its media team. There have been series of complains about the government media managers and if the government has any intention of avoiding what's coming, then disassembling its current media team will be a good way to start. Until then, all I can say is que sera sera.

By the way, should these two go to war, Uduak Ukpanah had already predicted the outcome when she said "men of the sword shall die by the sword. Men of the pen shall tell the story".

Edidiong Godwin, a journalist, writes from Uyo.

Opinion: My position on the judgment by the Akwa Ibom State National Assembly Election Tribunal, By Inibehe Effiong

By Inibehe Effiong

The National and State Houses of Assembly Elections Tribunal for Akwa Ibom State sitting in Abuja today nullified election in 38 polling units in 4 Local Government Areas of Akwa Ibom North East Senatorial District. The Tribunal ordered for fresh election in the affected areas.

The Petitioner Hon. Emmanuel Obot of the APC has 21 days within which to appeal the decision. Bassey Albert also has the right to cross appeal against the decision as it affects the 38 polling units.
Pending when the expected appeal(s) are filed and determined Mr. Albert will remain in the Senate by virtue of Section 143 of the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended). The Court of Appeal which is the court of last resort in legislative elections has 60 days from the date an appeal is filed to give judgment.
Since I was not present at the Tribunal when I judgment was read and I have not seen a copy of the judgment, I cannot access the correctness or otherwise of the judgment. However, as someone that comes from Uyo Senatorial District I can say clearly that there is no irregularity that took place in the said 38 polling units that wasn't replicated in other parts of the senatorial district. Bassey Albert himself knows what transpired and how he deployed undemocratic tactics to get to the Senate.
I believe that this decision might not stand appellate scrutiny. The three wisemen of the Court of Appeal may eventually see what the Tribunal did not see and order for fresh election in the entire senatorial district. It is not get over on this case.
There is no cause for alarm.
Mr. Inibehe Effiong is a lawyer and human rights activist